A Diasporan Reflection

Doug Ford’s victory on February 27, 2025, is no small feat. Leading the Progressive Conservatives to a rare third-straight majority—the first time an Ontario party leader has achieved this since 1959—Ford defied the odds of a snap winter election called over a year ahead of schedule. His campaign leaned heavily on economic protectionism, framed around resisting U.S. tariff threats from President Donald Trump, a narrative that resonated with working-class voters and tradespeople. The NDP, under Marit Stiles, held firm as the opposition, fending off Ford’s incursions into their strongholds like Windsor and Niagara, while Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals, despite regaining official party status, suffered a humiliating blow with Crombie losing her own riding.

For someone like me, whose diasporic roots trace back to African communities where family, faith, and pragmatism often anchor daily life, Ford’s populist appeal makes sense. His focus on jobs and economic stability echoes the priorities of many immigrant families—my own included—who value tangible outcomes over ideological promises. The Liberals’ slide, meanwhile, feels like a rejection of a party that has struggled to connect with these same voters. In 2022, Ford already showed he could peel away federal Liberal supporters, and this election cemented that shift. The Liberals’ inability to rebound, even with a new leader in Crombie, suggests a brand tarnished beyond Ontario’s borders.

Trudeau’s Resignation: A Federal Ripple Effect

Justin Trudeau’s resignation, announced in early January 2025 and formalized by late February, came after months of dwindling support, a lost byelection in a Liberal stronghold, and the NDP withdrawing from a confidence-and-supply agreement. Facing a Conservative-led no-confidence threat under Pierre Poilievre, Trudeau’s exit preempted a federal election he seemed unlikely to win. Polls had shown the Conservatives poised for a landslide, with the Liberals trailing by double digits, blamed for housing crises, inflation, and immigration policies that many felt spiraled out of control.

From a diasporic perspective, Trudeau’s tenure was a mixed bag. His progressive rhetoric—on multiculturalism, gender equality, and climate—won admiration in some corners of the global Black community, including mine. Yet, the disconnect grew stark as practical concerns like housing affordability hit immigrant-heavy suburbs hardest. In my family’s circles, whispers of “too much talk, not enough action” mirrored broader Canadian sentiment. Trudeau’s resignation, timed alongside Ford’s win, feels less like coincidence and more like a one-two punch to the Liberal identity—one provincial, one federal.

Global Context: Conservative Wins, Liberal Woes

Zooming out, the Ontario shakeup aligns with a conservative wave elsewhere. In the United States, Donald Trump’s 2024 re-election capitalized on frustration with liberal elites, promising economic nationalism and traditional values. In Germany, the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) and other right-leaning parties have gained ground, railing against immigration and green policies seen as out-of-touch. Across Europe, from Italy to Hungary, conservative leaders have framed liberal agendas as anti-family (think childcare over parental roles), anti-religion (secularism clashing with cultural traditions), and anti-common sense (complex regulations over straightforward solutions).

As an African diasporan, I see parallels. In many African nations, governance often balances modern progress with deep-rooted family and faith structures—values conservatives globally have tapped into. Liberal policies, when perceived as prioritizing abstract ideals (like carbon taxes) over immediate needs (like food prices), can feel alienating. In Ontario, Ford’s “Protect Ontario” mantra sidestepped ideological debates for a grounded economic pitch, while Trudeau’s carbon tax became a lightning rod for discontent. The Liberal slide, here and abroad, suggests voters are craving leaders who speak to their lived realities, not just their aspirations.

A Signal of Fed-Up Voters?

Is this a definitive signal that people are fed up with the Liberal Party and its ilk? Yes, but with caveats. Ford’s win and Trudeau’s fall reflect a fatigue with liberal governance that’s been in power too long—nine years federally, and a legacy of 15 provincial years before Ford’s 2018 rise. The Liberals’ decline isn’t just about policy extremism; it’s about execution and trust. Housing shortages, healthcare waitlists, and inflation hit harder than promises of pharmacare or dental plans resonated. For diaspora communities, who often juggle multiple jobs and lean on faith and family networks, the gap between liberal rhetoric and results stings acutely.

Yet, the NDP’s resilience complicates the narrative. As a left-leaning party, they held their ground, suggesting Ontario voters aren’t wholly rejecting progressive ideas—just the Liberal version of them. Globally, too, conservatives aren’t winning everywhere; social democrats and centrists still hold sway in places like Scandinavia. The “anti-family, anti-religion, anti-common sense” critique of liberalism has traction—Ford’s base and Trump’s echo it loudly—but it’s not universal. Voters seem more pragmatic than ideological, punishing incumbents who falter while rewarding those who deliver, whatever the label.

A Diasporan Reflection

As an African in Canada, I can’t help but see this through the lens of survival and adaptation—values my community knows well. Ford’s victory feels like a win for the hustlers, the workers, the folks who don’t have time for lofty debates but need a roof and a paycheck. Trudeau’s exit, and the Liberal Party’s broader stumble, reads like a cautionary tale of overpromising and underdelivering. Globally, the conservative surge taps into a hunger for stability amid chaos, a sentiment I recognize from stories of home.

The signal isn’t just “fed up with liberals.” It’s “fed up with disconnect.” Whether conservative or not, the winners are those who bridge that gap. For Ontario, Canada, and beyond, the question is: who’s next to figure that out?